重大公共卫生事件下应急药品储备方式优化分配策略

张炜健, 施先亮, 黄安强, 华国伟, 汪寿阳, 李江宁

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1) : 110-122.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1) : 110-122. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2021-0620
论文

重大公共卫生事件下应急药品储备方式优化分配策略

    张炜健1, 施先亮1, 黄安强1, 华国伟1, 汪寿阳2, 李江宁1
作者信息 +

Optimal allocation policies for emergency medicine reserve methods against major public health events

    ZHANG Weijian1, SHI Xianliang1, HUANG Anqiang1, HUA Guowei1, WANG Shouyang2, LI Jiangning1
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

全球性重大公共卫生事件的频繁爆发已经成为全人类共同面临的危及生命安全和毁坏社会经济秩序的严峻挑战.应急药品储备是实施紧急救助、挽救生命的基础和保障,直接影响应急反应速度和最终成效.现有文献尚未对应急药品储备方式(实物储备和资金储备)定量化研究.为此,本文基于随机需求的情景,确定了应急药品实物储备和资金储备的最优分配策略.首先以长期平均成本最小化为目标建立储备分配模型,量化了四种分配策略.进一步构建了应急救援阶段的采购和部署模型,讨论如何使用药品储备.最后分析了应急药品特性和需求特性如何影响最优的实物及资金储备量,以便在关键因素发生变化时更加合理地调整储备分配策略.关键性管理启示包括:1)当惩罚成本超过某一阈值,持有资金储备比持有实物储备更具成本优势;2)最优资金储备量随需求量不确定性增大而增大,但最优实物储备量可能随需求量不确定性增大而减小.研究成果可为各级政府部门应对公共卫生事件提供决策支持.

Abstract

Global major public health events have become a serious challenge that endangers human life and destroys social and economic order. Under this situation, it can be seen that emergency medicine reserve is the basis and guarantee of implementing emergency rescue and life-saving. At the same time, emergency medicine reserve directly affects the speed and final effect of emergency response. However, there is no quantitative research on the emergency medicine reserve methods (physical reserve and capital reserve) in the existing studies. Thus, this paper determines the optimal allocation policies of physical reserve and capital reserve of emergency medicine under stochastic demand. Firstly, we establish the reserve allocation model by minimizing the long-term average cost, which quantifies four allocation policies. Besides, we establish the procurement and deployment model of emergency rescue stage, and discuss how to use medicine reserve. Finally, we analyze how the emergency medicine characteristics and demand characteristics affect the optimal physical and capital reserve, so as to adjust the reserve allocation policies more reasonably when the key factors change. The key insights include:1) Once a certain threshold for the penalty cost is passed, building up capital reserve becomes more cost-effective than building up physical reserve; 2) While the optimal capital reserve level always increases with the uncertainty of the demand, the optimal physical reserve level may decrease with it. The research findings can provide decision support for relevant government departments to respond to public health events.

关键词

公共卫生事件 / 应急药品 / 实物储备 / 资金储备 / 随机需求

Key words

public health events / emergency medicine / physical reserve / capital reserve / stochastic demand

引用本文

导出引用
张炜健 , 施先亮 , 黄安强 , 华国伟 , 汪寿阳 , 李江宁. 重大公共卫生事件下应急药品储备方式优化分配策略. 系统工程理论与实践, 2022, 42(1): 110-122 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-0620
ZHANG Weijian , SHI Xianliang , HUANG Anqiang , HUA Guowei , WANG Shouyang , LI Jiangning. Optimal allocation policies for emergency medicine reserve methods against major public health events. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2022, 42(1): 110-122 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-0620
中图分类号: C934    F253.4   

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基金

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2020YJS048)
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