A regulated method of initial spare based on the Bayes method

LI Da-wei, ZHANG Zhi-hua, LIU Tian-hua

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11) : 2967-2971.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11) : 2967-2971. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2013)11-2967

A regulated method of initial spare based on the Bayes method

  • LI Da-wei, ZHANG Zhi-hua, LIU Tian-hua
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Abstract

Because of the environment and so on, the spare number of initial spare scheme can't meet the equipment support requirement when the equipments are in incipient operation. Aim at these statuses, the initial spare scheme was used as prior information. And then the regulate method of spare in incipient operation was proposed based on the Bayes method. Finally, the simulation example shows that the method proposed is feasibility. Comparing with classical method, the method proposed can improve the accuracy of estimation and has good steadiness. So the more rational spare scheme can be formed.

Key words

initial spare scheme / regulated method / prior distribution / Bayes method

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LI Da-wei , ZHANG Zhi-hua , LIU Tian-hua. A regulated method of initial spare based on the Bayes method. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(11): 2967-2971 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)11-2967

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